Seasonal and nonseasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil : fitting mathematical models to trap data.

Abstract

Mathematical models suggest that seasonal transmission and temporary cross-immunity betweenserotypes can determine the characteristic multi-year dynamics of dengue fever. Seasonal transmis-sion is attributed to the effect of climate on mosquito abundance and within host virus dynamics. In thisstudy, we validate a set of temperature and density dependent entomological models that are built-incomponents of most dengue models by fitting them to time series of ovitrap data from three distinctneighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The results indicate that neighborhoods differ in the strength ofthe seasonal component and that commonly used models tend to assume more seasonal structure thanfound in data. Future dengue models should investigate the impact of heterogeneous levels of seasonalityon dengue dynamics as it may affect virus maintenance from year to year, as well as the risk of diseaseoutbreaks.