DECEA - Departamento de Ciências Exatas e Aplicadas

URI permanente desta comunidadehttp://www.hml.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/551

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    Application of prediction models using fuzzy sets : a Bayesian inspired approach.
    (2017) Bacani, Felipo; Barros, Laécio Carvalho de
    A fuzzy inference framework based on fuzzy relations is developed, adapted and applied to temperature and humidity measure-ments from a specific coffee crop site in Brazil. This framework consists of fuzzy relations over possibility distributions, resulting in a model analogous to a Bayesian inference process. The application of this fuzzy model to a data set of experimental measurements and its correspondent forecasts of temperature and humidity resulted in a set of revised forecasts, that incorporate information from a historical record of the problem. Each set of revised forecasts was compared with the correspondent set of experimental data using two different statistical measures, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and Willmott’s D. This comparison showed that the sets of forecasts revised by the fuzzy model exhibited better results than the original forecasts on both statistical measures for more than two thirds of the evaluated cases.
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    Mathematical modelling for the transmission of dengue : symmetry and travelling wave analysis.
    (2018) Bacani, Felipo; Dimas, Stylianos; Freire, Igor Leite; Maidana, Norberto Anibal; Torrisi, Mariano
    In this paper we propose some mathematical models for the transmission of dengue using a system of reaction–diffusion equations. The mosquitoes are divided into infected, uninfected and aquatic subpopulations, while the humans, which are divided into susceptible, infected and recovered, are considered homogeneously distributed in space with a constant total population. We find Lie point symmetries of the models and we study theirs temporal dynamics, which provides us the regions of stability and instability, depending on the values of the basic offspring and the basic reproduction numbers. Also, we calculate the possible values of the wave speed for the mosquitoes invasion and dengue spread and compare them with those found in the literature.