DEPRO - Departamento de Engenharia de Produção
URI permanente desta comunidadehttp://www.hml.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/515
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Resultados da Pesquisa
Item Selected ‘Starter kit’ energy system modelling data for selected countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America (#CCG, 2021).(2022) Allington, Lucy; Cannone, Carla; Pappis, Ioannis; Barron, Karla Cervantes; Usher, Will; Pye, Steve; Brown, Edward; Howells, Mark; Walker, Miriam Zachau; Ahsan, Aniq; Charbonnier, Flora; Halloran, Claire; Hirmer, Stephanie; Cronin, Jennifer; Taliotis, Constantinos; Sundin, Caroline; Sridharan, Vignesh; Ramos, Eunice; Brinkerink, Maarten; Deane, Paul; Gritsevskyi, Andrii; Moura, Gustavo Nikolaus Pinto de; Rouget, Arnaud; Wogan, David; Barcelona, Edito; Niet, Taco; Rogner, Holger; Bock, Franziska; Quirós Tortós, Jairo; Angulo Paniagua, Jam; Krishnamurthy, Satheesh; Harrison, John; To, Long SengEnergy system modeling can be used to develop internallyconsistent quantified scenarios. These provide key insights needed to mobilise finance, understand market development, infrastructure deployment and the associated role of institutions, and generally support improved policymaking. However, access to data is often a barrier to starting energy system modeling, especially in developing countries, thereby causing delays to decision making. Therefore, this article provides data that can be used to create a simple zero-order energy system model for a range of developing countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America, which can act as a starting point for further model development and scenario analysis. The data are collected entirely from publicly available and accessible sources, including the websites and databases of international organisations, journal articles, and existing modeling studies. This means that the datasets can be easily updated based on the latest available information or more detailed and accurate local data. As an example, these data were also used to calibrate a simple energy system model for Kenya using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) and three stylized scenarios (Fossil Future, Least Cost and Net Zero by 2050) for 2020–2050. The assumptions used and the results of these scenarios are presented in the appendix as an illustrative example of what can be done with these data. This simple model can be adapted and further developed by in-country analysts and academics, providing a platform for future work.Item Evaluation of the energy transition in the process of renewable sources expansion - a case study.(2021) Anjos, Morjana Moreira dos; Costa, Antonella Lombardi; Pereira, Elizabeth Marques Duarte; Moura, Gustavo Nikolaus Pinto deConsidering the risks related to energy security and the challenges posed by climate change, this work presents a methodology to investigate energy alternatives to promote an adequate energy transition. Such methodology was applied to a case study, modelling the energy system of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais to subsidize an energy transition with a view to expanding renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency at the state and municipal levels, as well as combating climate change. Projections, in the 2030-2050 horizon, were made using the tool Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) to establish a model of energy transition policy for Minas Gerais State. The modelling considered key assumptions based on historical data of demographic and economic origin, which subsidized the elaboration of three scenarios, being a Reference Scenario (REF), a Moderate Energy Transition Scenario (ETM) that aims to contribute to the energy sector goals of the Brazilian NationallyDetermined Contributions – NDC, and an Advanced Energy Transition Scenario (ETA) that goes beyond of NDC's goals. The analysis has shown that current policies are not sufficient to promote the state transition to sustainable energy systems and that this process will depend on the energy policies initiated and implemented in the near future.Item Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.(2018) Jong, Pieter de; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo AndradeBy the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.Item Integrating large scale wind power into the electricity grid in the Northeast of Brazil.(2016) Jong, Pieter de; Kiperstok, Asher; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Torres, Ednildo AndradeWind power in the NE (Northeast) region of Brazil is currently undergoing rapid development and installed capacity is expected to exceed 16,000 MW by 2020. This study examines the feasibility of integrating large scale wind power into an electricity grid (the Brazilian NE subsystem) which has a high proportion of existing hydroelectricity. By extrapolating existing wind power generation data, the maximum achievable wind power penetration (without exports to other Brazilian regions) and corresponding surplus energy is determined for the NE subsystem. The viable maximum penetration of wind energy generation in the NE subsystemwas estimated to be 65% of the average annual electricity demand assuming that existing hydroelectric and gas generators have 100% scheduling flexibility. These results are compared to the actual gross penetration of wind power forecast to reach 55% in the NE subsystem by 2020. The overall LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) is calculated for various scenarios where wind power replaces all fossil fuel generators in NE subsystem. It was concluded that by 2020, wind power could feasibly reduce the overall LCOE by approximately 46e52% and reduce CO2eq emissions by 34 million tonnes per year compared to a power system with no new renewable generation.