EM - Escola de Minas
URI permanente desta comunidadehttp://www.hml.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/6
Notícias
A Escola de Minas de Ouro Preto foi fundada pelo cientista Claude Henri Gorceix e inaugurada em 12 de outubro de 1876.
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Item NeuroDem - a neural network based short term demand forecaster.(2001) Silva, Alexandre Pinto Alves da; Rodrigues, Ubiratan de Paula; Reis, Agnaldo José da Rocha; Moulin, Luciano SouzaThe application of Neural Network (NN) based Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) has developed to sophisticated practical systems over the years. However, the question of how to maximize the generalization ability of such machines, together with the choice of architecture, activation functions, training set data and size, etc. makes up a huge number of possible combinations for the final NN design, whose optimal solution has not been figured yet. This paper describes a STLF system (NeuroDem) which has been used by Brazilian electric utilities for 3 years. It uses a non-parametric model based on a linear model coupled with a polynomial network, identified by pruninglgrowing mechanisms. NeuroDem has special features of data pre-processing and confidence intervals calculations, which are also described. Results of load forecasts are presented for one year with forecasting horizons from 15 min. to 168 hours ahead.