EM - Escola de Minas
URI permanente desta comunidadehttp://www.hml.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/6
Notícias
A Escola de Minas de Ouro Preto foi fundada pelo cientista Claude Henri Gorceix e inaugurada em 12 de outubro de 1876.
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2 resultados
Resultados da Pesquisa
Item Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.(2018) Jong, Pieter de; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo AndradeBy the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.Item Integrating large scale wind power into the electricity grid in the Northeast of Brazil.(2016) Jong, Pieter de; Kiperstok, Asher; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Torres, Ednildo AndradeWind power in the NE (Northeast) region of Brazil is currently undergoing rapid development and installed capacity is expected to exceed 16,000 MW by 2020. This study examines the feasibility of integrating large scale wind power into an electricity grid (the Brazilian NE subsystem) which has a high proportion of existing hydroelectricity. By extrapolating existing wind power generation data, the maximum achievable wind power penetration (without exports to other Brazilian regions) and corresponding surplus energy is determined for the NE subsystem. The viable maximum penetration of wind energy generation in the NE subsystemwas estimated to be 65% of the average annual electricity demand assuming that existing hydroelectric and gas generators have 100% scheduling flexibility. These results are compared to the actual gross penetration of wind power forecast to reach 55% in the NE subsystem by 2020. The overall LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) is calculated for various scenarios where wind power replaces all fossil fuel generators in NE subsystem. It was concluded that by 2020, wind power could feasibly reduce the overall LCOE by approximately 46e52% and reduce CO2eq emissions by 34 million tonnes per year compared to a power system with no new renewable generation.