Navegando por Autor "Naghavi, Mohsen"

Agora exibindo 1 - 4 de 4

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017 : a global burden of disease Brazil study.
(2020) Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Soares Filho, Adauto Martins; Pinto, Isabella Vitral; Minayo, Maria Cecília de Souza; Lima, Cheila Marina de; Machado, Ísis Eloah; Teixeira, Renato Azeredo; Morais Neto, Otaliba Libânio; Ladeira, Roberto Marini; Merchan-Hamann, Edgar; Souza, Maria de Fátima Marinho de; Vasconcelos, Cíntia Honório; Vidotti, Carlos Cezar Flores; Cousin, Ewerton; Glenn, Scott; Bisignano, Catherine; Chew, Adrienne; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho; Naghavi, Mohsen
Background: Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. Methods: We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. Results: Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20–24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = −0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = −0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = −0.269, p = 0.005). Conclusions: There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.
A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil : a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020.
(2021) Stein, Caroline; Cousin, Ewerton; Machado, Ísis Eloah; Mendes, Mariana Santos Felisbino; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo; Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Gallagher, John; Naghavi, Mohsen; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow
Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1o de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.
Trends in mortality due to non- communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population : national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030.
(2020) Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Teixeira, Renato; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho; Mendes, Mariana Santos Felisbino; Machado, Ísis Eloah; Velásquez Meléndez, Jorge Gustavo; Brant, Luisa Campos Caldeira; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Cousin, Ewerton; Glenn, Scott; Naghavi, Mohsen
Background: Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. Methods: We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30–69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. Results: There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. Conclusion: Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.
Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017.
(2020) Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Flor, Luisa Sorio; Machado, Ísis Eloah; Mendes, Mariana Santos Felisbino; Brant, Luisa Campos Caldeira; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho; Teixeira, Renato Azeredo; Macário, Eduardo Marques; Reitsma, Marissa Bettay; Glenn, Scott; Naghavi, Mohsen; Gakidou, Emmanuela
Background: The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District. Methods: Prevalence of current smokers from 1990 to 2017 by sex and age was estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Population-attributable fractions were calculated for different risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality. A cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort was performed to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. Smoking-attributable mortality rates were described and analyzed by development at state levels, using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Finally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the contribution of different factors to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to smoking between 1990 and 2017. Results: Between 1990 and 2017, prevalence of smoking in the population (≥ 20 years old) decreased from 35.3 to 11.3% in Brazil. This downward trend was seen for both sexes and in all states, with a marked reduction in exposure to this risk factor in younger cohorts. Smoking-attributable mortality rates decreased by 57.8% (95% UI − 61.2, − 54.1) between 1990 and 2017. Overall, larger reductions were observed in states with higher SDI (Pearson correlation 0.637; p < 0.01). In Brazil, smoking remains responsible for a considerable amount of deaths, especially due to cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Conclusions: Brazil has adopted a set of regulatory measures and implemented anti-tobacco policies that, along with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, have contributed to the results presented in the present study. Other regulatory measures need to be implemented to boost a reduction in smoking in order to reach the goals established in the scope of the 2030 United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development.